[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N77W ACROSS
CUBA TO NEAR 12N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 15N15W INTO THE E
ATLC WATERS TO 5N18W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
47W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 15N69W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N18W 5N30W 12N47W 10N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
20N100W WHILE THE N GULF IS EXPERIENCING NEAR ZONAL EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SE GULF FROM 27N TO ACROSS CUBA E OF 87W THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXETNDS ACROSS THE N
GULF COAST STATES TO E TEXAS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW GULF N OF 16N W OF 90W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST
OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES WHILE THE SW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 68W WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-79W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N-21N BETWEEN 58W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 24N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE
CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER
KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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