[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N76W
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 14N80W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING MOST OF THE EAST...CENTRAL...AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR WEST AFRICA EMERGING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF HIGH VALUES
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA..AND GUINEA BISSAU.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEREFORE...MOS OF THE CONVECTION
IS WEAK AND LOCATED FAR EAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BASIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING
THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR GUINEA
AROUND 10N15W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 9N40W 7N50W 10N60W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA..AND GUINEA
BISSAU. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY A TROPICAL WAVE
EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING A LONGWAVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE ENERGY FROM THE REAR-RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE LONGWAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND EASTERN
TEXAS. THE SAME FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING A
LONGWAVE INTO THE EASTERN BASIN....GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SE BASIN INCREASING THE WEATHER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF 82W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES
OF MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTING TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 65W AND THE OTHER
ALONG 78W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER
CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 20N E
OF 70W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
PRODUCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE OVER THE FAR WEST
ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER ONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR
26N55W IS MOVING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLC GENERATING SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 48W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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