[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
23N76W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR
13N76W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING A LARGER AREA FROM
13N-25N BETWEEN 65W-83W. THE MORE INTENSE AREAS OF CONVECTION
AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR  WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N44W TO 06N46W MOVING W 20-25 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A BROAD
LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS THE WAVE LIES ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SAHARAN
DUST LAYER SURROUNDING ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN
THAT SOUTH QUADRANT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N60W TO 18N71W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 06N25W 10N42W 07N47W 08N56W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-11N BETWEEN 08W-21W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
BEING GENERATED BY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE READY TO EMERGE OFF
THE W AFRICA COAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 21W-32W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG 58W S OF 11N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD AND IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N ANCHORED
INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 21N98W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
TUXPAN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W
OF 89W AND INLAND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS
GULF COASTS. FARTHER SE...ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INITIATING WITH NEAR MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...ONE ALONG 64W AND THE OTHER ALONG 76W. WITH A BROAD AREA
OF ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 16N CREATING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF A LINE
FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.
WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W...IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N W OF 67W IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N57W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BASIN...MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC AND SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 48W-81W. ASIDE FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TO NEAR 20N...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N40W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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