[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ALONG 16N75W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-745W. AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE S
BAHAMAS FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 65W-78W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE
IS A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-65W AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
15N62W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N25W 9N41W 7N49W 8N61W. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 56W/57W S
OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 17W
TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA BETWEEN 10W13W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 17W-25W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 26N ANCHORED OVER SW
ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF CENTERED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS S OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM
THE W ATLC EXETNDS ACROSS N FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AND FAR E TEXAS BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N TO
THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 84W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N71W EXTENDING N OVER
THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 78W-82W AND S OF 18N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT N OF 25N W OF 62W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC S OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-79W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA W
OF 74W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS INCLUDING SOME OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS N OF THE
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY
A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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