[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ALONG 17N75W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A
LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE S BAHAMAS FROM 14N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N39W TO 4N41W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS
WAVE IS A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS A THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N27W 8N39W 5N49W 7N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 56W/57W S
OF 11N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75/90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ E OF 15W TO INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W-23W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 27W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE
AREA FROM 7N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 26N ANCHORED OVER
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE S GULF CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. A THIRD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 0300 UTC...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING ALONG 90W FROM
26N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-86W
WITH REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N
TO JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST  BETWEEN 87W-93W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N72W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W
WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE W ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT N OF 26N W OF
64 W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N56W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 24N
BETWEEN 50W-77W. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS N
OF THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N38W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER
KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR AND AFRICAN
DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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