[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W MOVING W NEAR 12
KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND ERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 72W-78W. THIS LARGE AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN TO HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 4N40W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. A DRY LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS DRAWING A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST
AROUND THE TOP AND WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DRY CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE
WITH A PEAK IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W S OF
15 N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 29N88W 23N87W 19N85W PREVIOUSLY MOVING WNW NEAR
10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE SEEN
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ABSORBED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE SRN PORTION IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GET LOST OVER SRN MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE/CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 85W-94W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EXTEND OF THE
WAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED S OF LOUISIANA. THE SRN
PORTION OF THE WAVE IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N22W 9N37W 5N46W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
19W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 53W S OF 13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW OVER THE SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N91W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER TO
NEAR 28N92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THIS
SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND GULF COAST STATES
FROM  25N-31N BETWEEN 85W-94W CONFIRMED BY LIGHTNING DATA AND
RADAR IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
THE WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N92W 17N94W ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY ABOVE IT NEAR
20N95W. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL GULF WILL MOST LIKELY MERGE WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS SRN EXTENT IS CURRENTLY FLARING UP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE BASIN
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS IS PROVIDING MAINLY NE-E FLOW
OVER THE NW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CUBA.
THIS IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE NW BAHAMAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN IMPACTING
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED W OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N65W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF
FLORIDA AND THE NW/CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. AN
ACTIVE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM TURKS AND CAICOS
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N BETWEEN 66W-74W.
FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1029
MB HIGHS NEAR 33N39W AND 38N32W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WRAPS AROUND THE
ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING TO
54W S OF 24N EVIDENT IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
DAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 37N45W TO
10N45W EMBEDDED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...CENTERED OVER
THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND WRN AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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