[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXTENDING FROM 22N73W ACROSS HAITI ALONG 15N72W TO 11N70W
MOVING WNW 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 66W-77W.
THIS CONVECTIVE AREA AND OUTLYING PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT.
A LOW LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS SITUATED W OF THIS WAVE.
BOTH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN DUST LAYER
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE BETWEEN W AFRICA
AND 50W. ALONG THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS S OF 10N33W TO 5N35W...A
BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN
20W-40W SERVES AS THE SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 03N-09N
BETWEEN 30W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM 19N83W TO 27N87W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS THE
NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W IN THE NE GULF AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
82W-86W IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 07N22W 08N33W 06N43W 10N59W.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG
52W S OF 14N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N
BETWEEN 52W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 18W-30W AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN
36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 87W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF RIDGE CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N93W COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA SE TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR
28N91W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N64W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG
15N TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE W
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N57W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN SW TO WESTERN CUBA. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED MAINLY N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM N OF 24N TO THE DISCUSSION BORDER
NEAR 32N WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPANDS
NORTHWARD TO 24N AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N57W GENERATING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 50W-72W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC
NEAR 33N36W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N60W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST COVERING A LARGE
AREA OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 27N E OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/HUFFMAN



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