[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ALONG 15N71W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W MOVING WNW 15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TO 20N67W AND WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
DRY LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N33W TO 11N32W WITH A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DRY CIRCULATION TO  THE E OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM S OF 12N. ANY DEEP
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N58W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 58W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N84W TO 14N80W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY
CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N19W 7N29W 4N40W 8N56W.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
12N49W TO 5N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 21W-30W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 6N38W TO 8N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W AND S
OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN ARE COMBINING TO GIVE THE GULF WATERS E TO S FLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS THAT
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER
IN THE EVENING OVER ALABAMA TO SE LOUISIANA AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH...A FRACTURE PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS OVER THE E
GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N84W TO 24N85W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N E OF 88W TO INLAND OVER THE
W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
21N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG 14N W OF 78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN MOSTLY INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N61W AND
EXTENDS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO A PORTION OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC ENHANING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 25N-28N. MUCH OF
THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE E OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH S OT 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 76W ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 22N35W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 31N60W
TO OVER THE FAR SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING
THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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