[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A DRY LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 12N24W. THE UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS FROM
DAKAR SENEGAL SHOWED THAT THE LOW CENTER PASSED DAKAR AROUND
20/0000 UTC. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 26N.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N48W 7N50W 2N52W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 52W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.
MORE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE WAVE...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/65W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
63W AND 70W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING...
WEAKENING...AND THEN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST
OF 63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N76W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA TO 15N77W AND 11N79W.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN WESTERN
HAITI AND CUBA ALONG 83W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
AREA ALSO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF
LAKE MARACAIBO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. OTHER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W
TO 7N23W 4N30W 7N47W 7N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND
47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 23N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N...MOSTLY
TO THE EAST OF 90W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SPINNING
THROUGH MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE 23N104W
CENTER. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE APALACHEE BAY TO 27N85W. A SECOND TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND BARELY INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE REST OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COMPARATIVELY
WEAK AND FLAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...IN MOST
OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 80W AND NICARAGUA...IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF IT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA
TO THE BAHAMAS...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N60W...TO A 26N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE FLORIDA COAST...INCLUDING BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N30W TO A 23N37W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N49W AND 12N54W...WITH NO APPARENT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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