[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N40W 7N45W 4N48W...MOVING W 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...NOTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...AFFECTING MOSTLY
THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
EASTERN VENEZUELA EAST OF 65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W...CROSSING WESTERN HAITI ALONG
73W FROM 14N TO 21N...MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO CONSIDERABLE VALUES OF
WATER VAPOR. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS HAPPENING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...NORTH OF 14N EAST OF
73W...AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.
THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION
IS DUE TO ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N65W. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS NOTED OVER THE AREA OF CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 6N20W 7N30W 6N40W 7N50W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 11W AND 26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 48W AND 58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 36W FROM 4N TO 10N. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NEAR OR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE SE CONUS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF...SUPPORTING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW
ALONG 30N84W 27N96W 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 82W AND
93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN
THIS REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN EAST OF 74W...AND ACROSS
THE SW BASIN SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 75W. THE CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL
TROPICAL WAVES...ONE OVER HAITI ALONG 72W...AND A SECOND ONE
JUST ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BASIN ALONG 61W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THESE WAVES...SEE TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA ALONG 66W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 15N...AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES...EXCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE CONVECTION OVER THE
SE BASIN IS DUE TO THE REMNANT PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ACTIVITY IS GREATLY AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NE COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 25N65W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME WEAK SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA ALONG 72W. THIS WAVE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE INTERACTING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...GENERATING MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 13N EAST OF
55W...DUE TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N30W

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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