[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N/32W FROM 5N TO 10N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N38W 5N43W 2N45W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
6N53W 10N56W 14N60W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH ISLANDS AND
MAINLAND SOUTH AMERICA IF IT REMAINS INTACT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W...CROSSING THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 18N70W TO 14N72W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS
16N...AND COVERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALSO.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N82W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N79W...FORECAST
TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
78W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W REACHING NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 6N23W 7N36W 5N49W 8N56W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND
16W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 32W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC...BUT NOT AS
UNIFORMLY CYCLONIC AS IT WAS DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS.
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER
THE U.S.A. FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
HAS PUSHED SOME REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS
JUST OFF LAND TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 89W.
COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST
OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO MEXICO BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 100W AND 101W...AND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 104W AND
107W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM T.S. CELIA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W...CROSSING THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 18N70W TO 14N72W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS
16N...AND COVERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALSO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W/65W FROM 7N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND
66W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISLANDS AND/OR
SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W.
AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 6N53W 10N56W 14N60W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH ISLANDS
AND MAINLAND SOUTH AMERICA IF IT REMAINS INTACT. A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 14N82W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 10N79W...FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W REACHING
NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 24N80W
26N70W BEYOND 30N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W...
TO A 26N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 29N20W TO 20N42W...WITH
NO APPARENT PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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