[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/37W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY 16 JUNE INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE
THAT IS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W HAVE
BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS...AND SOME SHOWERS REMAIN.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N50W INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO
THE ITCZ THAN JUST THE WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N64W...
CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...13N68W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W
AND 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN STILL FROM
14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
STILL...OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE COMPARATIVELY REALLY BIG MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AT THIS TIME.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W 10N80W
TO 3N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W 12N82W TO THE EAST
OF NICARAGUA. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE WARMED...AND MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...
TO 5N20W 6N27W 4N44W TO 5N55W IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 11N
BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW EVEN COVERS MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 104W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST
OF 92W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N64W...
CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...13N68W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W
AND 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN STILL FROM
14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
STILL...OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE COMPARATIVELY REALLY BIG MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS
TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W
10N80W TO 3N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W 12N82W TO THE
EAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE WARMED...AND MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
BAHAMAS...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N64W 23N66W 20N70W...TO THE WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N27W...TO 22N38W 20N50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH
THIS TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N48W 27N63W TO 27N73W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 31N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF
60W...WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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