[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
NORTH OF 13N. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N60W. SEVERAL DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A
HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH TO 22N
BETWEEN 52W-61W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 13N...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE INFRA-RED DEPICTS SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH A NWD CLEARING OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE SUPPRESS THE WAVE
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHITING
100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS FOUND INLAND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS IT MOVES WWD UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE GUINEA COAST OVER WEST AFRICA
NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 7N40W 5N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 52W S OF 8N COINCIDING WITH A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM THE COASTS OF GUYANA..SURINAME...AND
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
GULF...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N87W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR
NE GULF...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 24N TO 30N. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF 28N AND
SOUTH OF 26N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE WRN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OFF THE FAR SW GULF
COAST FROM TAMPICO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE ARE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N W OF 74W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 14N. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE. A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 13N OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS NORTH
OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR NORTH
OF 22 WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LINES THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN 40W-60W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS
ANALYZED JUST 3O NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPANDS TO 22N
BETWEEN 52W-61W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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