[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 22N57W TO 13N59W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N. SEVERAL
DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS
CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 50W-62W SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 53W-56W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WWD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 3N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A NWD
CLEARING OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 2N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W TO NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR TO THE N CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-71W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AS IT
MOVES WWD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 8N22W 6N33W 7N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-36W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 48W S OF 10N COINCIDING WITH A BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 43W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE GULF
EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN COAST OF
FLORIDA S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...ACROSS THE
PENINSULA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF STATES. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
23N90W TO 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WRN BASIN CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 28N97W
KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 28N88W. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF NICARAGUA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
W OF 76W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NW
VENEZUELA COAST. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER
THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES
WWD AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AS AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC MOVES WWD. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO THE NW
BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 29N60W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT LINES THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN 42W-64W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. A DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 23N64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S CENTERED
OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
56W-59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-22N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS
NEAR 43N21W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PORTUGAL TO
NEAR 19N30W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
LESSER ANTILLES COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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