[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N36W TO 02N38W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
BETWEEN 32W-42W. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE MIDDLE TO LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AREAS
OF INCREASED LOW TO MID-LAYER MOISTURE ARE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSED DUE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DRY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 21N64W. AS THE WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD...IT
WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
65W-72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND EXTREME EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 06N23W 05N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
AND 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-35W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 10N44W TO 03N46W EXHIBITING BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 42W-52W.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
U.S. SEABOARD AND DIPS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO
CLEARWATER FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. AND REMAIN N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-90W.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING N-NE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND IS PROVIDING MUCH
OF THE GULF WITH OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SW GULF...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF
A LINE FROM 25N98W TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR
20N91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N87W. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER WHILE
SE WINDS TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W
AND CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODERATELY
DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND IS
PROVIDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NW VENEZUELA. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXHIBIT CYCLONIC TURNING...AND AS THE WAVE
MOVES BENEATH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...INCREASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
65W-72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND EXTREME EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-85W AS A RESULT OF CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 32N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY IS INITIATING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
AND THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA LARGELY DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N EXTENDING INTO THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N63W.
FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N-22N ALONG
57W. A 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 16N.
ALOFT...THIS FEATURE IS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO THE SOUTH CENTERED NEAR 10N56W AND A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH CENTERED NEAR 21N64W. AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N38W TO 28N45W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF
32N42W TO 30N46W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 31N TO BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 15N E OF 40W DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 33N30W TO 27N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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