[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 2N39W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N66W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO BEYOND 10N69W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED NE/SW WITH
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 62W-68W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 5N23W 5N41W 3N53W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 43W FROM 3N-8N WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 41W-47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 47W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8N21W TO
5N37W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 37W-41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-11N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF NEAR 23N91W GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST
BETWEEN 85W-90W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E YUCATAN
PENINSULA NE TO 24N84W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 22N87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW GULF EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO
TO JUST E OF VERA CRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM N OF TAMPICO NEAR 23N98W TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS MUCH OF GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR
27N86W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N80W COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 71W-86W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 19N78W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH. CONVERGENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA
GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-70W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM
38W-45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N54W BECOMING A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 31N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SECOND BROADER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC E OF 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH
32N31W SW ALONG 25N45W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
N OF 21N. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW...IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N54W TO 13N56W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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