[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 1N36W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH
COINCIDES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE
NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N59W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N65W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE EVIDENT MAINLY NEAR THE
NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO
INDICATED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 65W-67W...AND NEAR THE
NE VENEZUELA COASTLINE FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 61W-63W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N22W 7N33W 3N40W 1N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN19W-30W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-29W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
37W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 22N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
LINES THE ERN MEXICO COASTLINE FROM 24N97W TO 18N94W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
28N87W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN
LOUISIANA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS S OF
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 16N78W ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IMPACTING COSTA RICA/
PANAMA S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN
CENTERED SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 11N56W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
27N69W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N BETWEEN
64W-75W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 14N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. IT
CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER E...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 46N20W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE E
ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
S OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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