[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160105 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

CORRECTION FOR THE PERCENTAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO 10 PERCENT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N46W...ABOUT 850 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THIS LOW CENTER
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND
49W. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW CENTER. THE CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW...10 PERCENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 14N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
10N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 6N61W...MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W
AND 57W PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
OTHER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 68W ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM THE AREA OF THE HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL
HONDURAS...AND FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 6N26W 1N39W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W
AND 37W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96W
TO 20N96W TO 18N97W INLAND IN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 15N96W...ONLY ABOUT 70 NM OFF THE
MEXICO COAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND THEN IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W. SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CUBA...
THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...12N74W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ONE SMALL-SCALE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA TO
23N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL HAITI...CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE VENEZUELA BORDER AND 75W.
AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N77W TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 34N TO THE WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N22W TO 25N28W
TO 22N40W TO 20N52W TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
54W AND 57W PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW.  THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N47W. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH
THE FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N41W TO 25N65W 26N72W

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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