[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N43W. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 44W-47W. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW AT 10 KT TO 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM2N TO 11N MOVING WEST NEAR 7 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N55W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N59W MOVING WEST 13 KT. NO CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH
VALUES OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF 10N ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W 4N51W. NUMEROUS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION
ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N92W SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA SUPPORTING AND AREA OF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BASIN NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE
FAR EASTERN GULF PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER
MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE RETURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT TO 15 KT SOUTH OF
25N...BECOMING RETURN FLOW NORTH OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AIRMASS COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS
CAN BE TRACKED ALONG 15N83W 12N73W 13N61W...A SHARP CONTRAST
BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR IS FOUND ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
LINE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WITHIN 80 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS CONVECTION IS THE REMAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 77W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WEST OF 49W.
HOWEVER. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT NEARLY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 27N46W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FOUND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH
OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GRAMS/GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net