[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N43W.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
43W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NW AT ABOUT 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N56W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAIL A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 15N
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION DRIFTING SLOWLY WNW. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT COVERS THE
ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FROM 22N93W ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 18N94W IS
NOW A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE GULF OF MEXICO BELOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N17W 1N33W 4N47W 3N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 4N W OF 46W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND
FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-46W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 10W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA JUST W OF NEW ORLEANS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 23N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N94W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N95W TO THE COAST
OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE E GULF TO NEAR 27N85W. THIS SCENARIO IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF
25N BETWEEN 91W-97W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 23N
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W-87W LEAVING THE N GULF
AND NE GULF CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N74W TO THE
W TIP OF CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 83W WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF GONAVE ALONG THE S COAST
OF CUBA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
BE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED
IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF
50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W ARE KEEPING THE W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING TO 28N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE
TROUGH TO 27N52W AND SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 28N BETWEEN 35W-45W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N33W
TO 23N48W. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 48W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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