[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1250 MILES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...FOCUSED ON
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N41W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE DAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVING IT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF THE SYSTEM
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 1N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND
NEAR 7N21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N49W TO 4N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR
6N85W REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
MORE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. SEE
TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N REMAINING MOSTLY
STATIONARY. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SEE TWDEP
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N16W 3N20W 7N33W 4N44W
7N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N90W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N96W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE
NE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN
92W-96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-92W...AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT ENTERING THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
BETWEEN 76W-86W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N79W
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 6N85W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR
18N80W.AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
CENTERED OVER WRN HONDURAS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL
WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC W OF 60W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
30N62W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 30N38W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N47W 27N52W 26N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 47N20W KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 38N22W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N CENTERED OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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