[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
10N41W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
MAP MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE...INDICATING LOW
TO MODERATE VALES IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN 2N AND 11N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W 13N FROM 2N TO 17N MOVING WEST 13 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING OVER LOW VALUES OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS FOUND ALONG OR NEAR THE WAVE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WAVE IS ALONG 53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 10 KT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY AND HAS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 8N TO 14N WEST OF 74W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 4.5N40W 5N50W 9N60W. NUMEROUS
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2N AND 11N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION
ABOVE REGARDING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 91W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE
MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SURFACE
SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN TO CREATE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE RETURN FLOW 10 KT TO 15 KT WEST OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AIRMASS IS PUSHING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
AIRMASS...AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 81W. THIS ARE OF SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED
INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. RECENT CLOUD MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
USING SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE WAVE AXIS REACHES
AS FAR NORTH AS 17N. THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 75W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING THIS REGION
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST
OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N46W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N52W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
25N62W...BECOMING A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD
TO NEAR 26N70W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SHEAR AXIS.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALONG 40W FROM 22N TO 27N PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA/GRAMS




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