[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS
BETWEEN THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND AN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN
SATELLITE WINDS S OF 10N. WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAIL A  MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N82W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND HAS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 9N19W 6N26W 8N36W 5N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
20W-23W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 2N-13N
BETWEEN 19W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 6W-16W INCLUDING THE SW COAST
OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW GULF TO A SECOND UPPER LOW
NEAR 21N96W GIVING THE GULF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
85W-89W AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 85W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N
W OF 91W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
GUATEMALA EXTENDING TO NEAR 72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES DEVELOPING A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SAINT LUCIA ALONG 14N72W TO OVER CUBA NEAR
20N77W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS N
OF THE LINE WHILE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO THE S.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR AXIS IS DEVELOPING SOME CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO THE COAST
OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 53W
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DIPPING S OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 77W
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE  W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING TO
29N50W BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N59W AND SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN
37W-50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
39W FROM 22N-28N BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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