[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 975 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...FOCUSED ON
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N37W. THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 38W-42W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE
WRN COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE ALSO LIES E OF A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N44W TO 2N47W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-86W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N18W 10N30W 4N41W 5N51W
7N58W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W PRECEDING THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE THAT STILL REMAINS OVER WRN AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG NE SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 29N89W KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING TO THE NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
86W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N83W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-86W DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND
ALONG 71W FROM 17W-21W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS THE ANTILLES TO E OF JAMAICA. HOWEVER...A DRY AIR MASS IS
MOVING INTO THE ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN KEEPING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 60W.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N65W.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG 30N44W TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N49W 26N56W 26N62W CONTINUING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER
E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH
NEAR 41N24W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 42N25W.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
S OF 27N CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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