[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131843
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1830 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N35W IN. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN LIFT IN
THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF RELATIVE MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY
REMAINING EAST OF 22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 15N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF
13N BETWEEN 72W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 8.5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 7N60W. NUMEROUS
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
DISCUSSION ABOVE REGARDING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND
GUINEA-BISSAU.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N93W
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASIN SOUTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THIS REGION AND SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N80W TO 24N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE OVER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST
SOUTH OF 27N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE BASIN..INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AIRMASS IS PUSHING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ALONG 69W FROM 15N TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. THE CONVECTION IS
SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 60W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N61W. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N47W AND
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 29N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 25N63W...BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 27N70W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 15N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA





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