[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT
ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS COINCIDING WITH A BULGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-FORMING
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/77W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ONE AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N13W TO 10N16W TO 6N33W 5N47W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N61W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ITS WAY THROUGH NEVADA...
CALIFORNIA...AND ARIZONA REACHES NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE FAR WEST OF
TEXAS AND 120W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N92W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM GUATEMALA AND MEXICO FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN
90W AND 92W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS IN
INTERIOR MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N93W 19N100W 25N102W 31N103W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 29N86W.

FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 90W...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THIS AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...IN THE CENTRAL
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI...OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...COVER CUBA FROM
ONE END TO THE OTHER ONE...SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND THE EASTERN APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 90W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PANAMA
COAST NEAR 80W TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME.
ONE AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND 79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF COSTA RICA. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN
OCCURRING IN PANAMA APPEARS TO HAVE SUBSIDED. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 18N71W 14N65W 14N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 20N64W TO 16N66W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST OF 70W...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
FROM 30N79W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 27N70W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W FROM 15N TO 21N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LOOSE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 41N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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