[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W FROM 5N TO 12N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN
NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING WEST 8 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND
40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST NEAR 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
ALONG 26W FROM 4N TO 10N..AND A SURFACE LOW ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 7N32W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF
10N BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE
COAST OF SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WEST OF 91W. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN A DAY OR SO...IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WITHIN 150 NM. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 16N CROSSING OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THIS WAVE WILL BE BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF
78W IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST OF 70W...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
FROM 30N79W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 27N70W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W FROM 15N TO 21N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LOOSE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 41N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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