[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 4N35W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH PEAK EDGE OF MODERATE VALUES IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W
AND 36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
MODEL DATA INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH HIGH VALUES OF
RELATIVE VORTICITY ACROSS VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...INCLUDING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 5N40W 6N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FOUND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 26W FROM 4N
TO 9N...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W
BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE
COAST OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF FROM A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WEST OF 90W. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND WESTERN CUBA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 13N CROSSING OVER NORTH EASTERN
VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN
PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 14N
WEST OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REMNANT CONVECTION
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW OVER COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...IS AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
15N WEST OF 80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY TAKING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A WEAK A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N60W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG 28N70W 27N75W 23N78W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY GENERATING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING BY
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
57W FROM 16N TO 23N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LOOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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