[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 04N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEST OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS VENEZUELA...AND A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N
BETWEEN 61W-70W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 07N32W 06N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
01N-10N BETWEEN 12W-32W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 51W WITH A BROAD 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 43W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH NW
FLOW LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS PROVIDING STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W TO
EASTERN MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SE WINDS DOMINATE WITH HIGHER
VALUES UP TO 20 KT LOCATED W OF 90W. OVERALL...SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE POINT 25N82W...WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE POINT 28N89W SOUTH OF SE LOUISIANA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W-94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W
AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-79W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO CONTINUES TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 12N FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N84W. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE
PROPAGATING S OF 13N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA PROVIDING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION...AS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THE TROPICAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-70W AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-85W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC OCEAN
AND EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N60W TO 28N72W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 31N64W 29N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 63W-73W AND OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 25N65W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO
BEYOND 32N48W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 26N BETWEEN 50W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N28W. THE
HIGH IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...HOWEVER...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N53W TO 19N55W AND CONTINUES
PROGRESSING WESTWARD ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN
50W-60W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N33W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH
CENTERED NEAR 34N34W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE SOUTH CENTERED NEAR 13N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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