[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N
BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 64W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING MUCH
OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N20W 8N33W 6N50W 9N65W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE AFRICA COAST FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 48W-53W NEAR
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE
GULF. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
BASIN...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NRN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALSO EXTENDING OFF NRN CUBA DUE TO
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
CUBA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 79W-86W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 78W-74W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST E OF JAMAICA. THIS UPPER LOW IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO EACH SIDE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA INFLUENCED BY AN E PACIFIC
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 64W-67W. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE
EWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N65W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
36N52W. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTS
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 30N55W ALONG 30N69W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N77W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 44N29W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N30W TO THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
18N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SQUISHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO THE N NEAR 36N32W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE S.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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