[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W FROM 4N TO 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 6N TO 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 10N. INCREASED VALUES OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWEST OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 7N30W 6N40W 5N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W AND 28W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 47W FROM 4N TO 8N. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF 90W.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 14N CROSSING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH SAME TYPE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF 16N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION AND
EXPAND TO NEAR 15N...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
30N52W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 30N60W 30N70W 25N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY DISSIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 52W FROM 18N TO 26N.
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS WITHIN A REGION OF
DRY...STABLE AIR ALOFT AND THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LOOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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