[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS THE WAVE AXIS
CORRESPONDS WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM N OF 05N BETWEEN
28W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN
28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N59W TO 05N63W AND IS MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SE OF GRENADA NEAR 12N61W. INCREASED
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TO ADVECT NW OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 66W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N09W 06N30W 06N49W 10N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 09W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 18W-26W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 20N109W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N85W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. E-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ACROSS THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO
18N91W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH 60 NM OF THE YUCATAN
COAST AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO
WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASED SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BY EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
20N TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER CUBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 83W...THE SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 10N60W TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 83W. ALSO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FALLS BENEATH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND THEREFORE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE
WAVE SWEEPS WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W CENTERED
NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W TO 28N67W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 60W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BETWEEN 78W-82W. THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC
ALONG 37N51W TO 25N54W AND INTO THE NARROW TROUGHING EXTENDING
ALONG 20N...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 20N-27N ALONG 49W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF
THE AZORES NEAR 42N34W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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