[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-30W.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
61W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE
ALSO COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 54W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W S OF
11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N19W 7N29W 5N43W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 11W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
16W-21W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021
MB HIGH OVER SRN GEORGIA...AND ALSO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 36N69W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF
REACHING UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 82W FROM 10N-18N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS N OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION IS
THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N73W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
36N69W. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N51W TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W TO 28N69W
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W
TO 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N37W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 26N49W TO 19N47W. NO
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ALOFT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N42W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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