[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 2N TO 9N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 62W FROM
9N TO 15N...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
SOUTH OF 15N HAVE REGISTERED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT. MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER GRENADA...SAINT VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND SAINT LUCIA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 7N50W 8N60W. ASIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF GHANA...COTE
D'IVOIRE...LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND GUINEA-BISSAU
TO 100 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK
ANTI-CYCLONIC EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE OF THE HURRICANE SEASON HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND IT IS NOW
LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG 62W FROM 9N TO 15N MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W
AND 62W. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF
67W...STAYING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. FOR
TECHNICAL DETAILS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL WAVE...SEE TROPICAL
WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND IN THIS REGION SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST BASIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THIS REGION. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED
ALONG 32N55W 29N62W 27N70W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 26N75W CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 24N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE SAME
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
47W FROM 18N TO 25N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST WITH WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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