[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 4N TO 10N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND
25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 6N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
CLOUD MOVEMENT OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NORTH OF 9N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA EAST OF 64W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 8.5N60W. ASIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE AND SOUTHERN LIBERIA
TO 100 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY
AND MOSTLY STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...FROM CORPUS
CHRISTI TO GALVESTON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN THIS REGION...SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN BASIN..EAST OF 70W...INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
12 KT...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THIS
REGION. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N65W 28N72W 24N77W. THIS
FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W FROM 18N
TO 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS AND
80 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...MOVING THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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