[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N22W TO 12N18W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N49W TO 6N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS TILTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BUT REMAINS ALONG
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 55W-62W TO THE COAST OF W GUYANA/NE VENEZUELA BUT
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N11W 5N25W 6N29W 8N44W 7N54W
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 6N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N15W 4N8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN NEAR 4N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM
22W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED JUST S OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING N TO OVER
ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO AND THE DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO
BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE E GULF FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC OVER TAMPA
FLORIDA CONTINUING NW TO ACROSS E LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT
AND THE WEAK 1017 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
SUPPRESSED OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FLORIA BAY AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 20N85W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. A SMALL
UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA COVERING THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER PANAMA HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION AND COMBINED WITH THE SMALL UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN
10N-13N. A VERY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH
AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE E TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO LEAVING A SWATH OF THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT
LAUDERDALE THEN BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-81W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN W
OF 60W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N73W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W AND A SECOND TO THE W FROM
24N66W TO 19N68W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS S OF 23N TO THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 61W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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