[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAKER DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
17W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 10N48W TO 4N45W MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS TILTED TOWARD A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE
OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
56W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF W VENEZUELA AND MOVING INTO COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 4N27W 7N47W 6N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 6W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM WITHIN
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 28W-34W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 50W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 6W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM
21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W EXTENDING N TO OVER ALABAMA. THE UPPER LOW
OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING SEVERE WEATHER OVER MEXICO AND COUPLED
WITH THE DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
GULF W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E GULF FROM THE W ATLC OVER TAMPA FLORIDA
BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING NW TO ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR NEW
ORLEANS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPRESSED IN THE GULF. THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W COVERING THE AREA S OF
15N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N81W AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN S OF OF A
LINE FROM THE NE TIP OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W TO COLOMBIA NEAR
11N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM CUBA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING
THE CENTRAL SWATH OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR VERO BEACH THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 76W AND FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 76W-81W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN W
OF 50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 22N73W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 18N71W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE TROUGH.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N64W TO NE OF THE PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 61W-67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 64W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA SE OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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