[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/34W TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART
OF THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N46W 2N43W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N INTO GUYANA MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS APPARENT.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N81W...
TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...TO 5N79W...DRIFTING WESTWARD. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W
AND THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 6N20W 6N32W 6N37W
5N44W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W...
INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...
PROBABLY THE NEXT FEATURE THAT WILL APPEAR ON THE MAP AS
A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
PRESENCE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST...TO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 31N80W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N
TO 31N OVER LAND BETWEEN 80S AND 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA ACROSS AND
BEYOND GUADELOUPE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC MOVES FROM VENEZUELA
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...STAYING ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED ON THEIR OWN
AND/OR MOVED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS
OR SO HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS
BRINGING THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
12N81W...TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...TO 5N79W...DRIFTING WESTWARD.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 80W AND THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...NEAR A 28N72W 24N72W 20N74W SURFACE TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY ALONG 70W FROM 20N TO 30N CONSISTS
OF A LINE OF CONFLUENCE...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF GULF OF MEXICO/
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC FLOW.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
THIS AREA IS NEAR 28N63W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
21N57W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 60W FROM 21N TO 24N. A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
31N55W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
51W AND 54W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A FOURTH CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...
ALONG 30N54W 25N56W 20N64W. BROAD FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST...TO
THE EAST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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