[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 28W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 8N45W TO 3N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N12W 5N22W 6N36W 5N47W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW
AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
16W-28W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W/82W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 10N TO ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 79W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SW ACROSS S LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO NW MEXICO WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF
WATERS ANCHORED JUST N OF CUBA NEAR 24N84W GIVING MOST OF THE
GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINATION IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N42W
27N88W TO JUST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO WHILE A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN
DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
WHERE THERE ARE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
THE W ATLC W OF 70W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-80W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS FROM 55W-68W DIPPING S TO OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N69W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W AND SECOND STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N53W ALONG 25N56W TO 19N62W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W AND
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN MOST
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 16N ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N46W EXTENDING FROM 30W INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS
WITH A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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