[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 42W S OF 9N. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE HAS BECOME TILTED NW/SE AND IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ BASED ON POTENTIAL VORTICITY STREAMLINES AND
EXTENDED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE. WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N21W 4N34W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN
10W-24W AND FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS SW ACROSS LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NW
MEXICO. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NE GULF COAST E
90W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS ANCHORED JUST N
OF CUBA NEAR 24N83W GIVING MOST OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN
89W-93W INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W AND ALL OF
COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
THE W ATLC W OF 70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 79W ACROSS NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS FROM 55W-70W DIPPING S TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG
24N55W TO 20N61W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 52W-59W AND WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 30N. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 16N ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
10N50W EXTENDING FROM 35W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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