[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 9N MOVING W 13 KT. WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N. MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING W 12 KT. THIS
WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM OFF THE COAST OF
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF
CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS FOUND NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE COASTAL
WATERS OF GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND LIBERIA. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND TO 80 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO BRING A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
GULF...NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 92W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 30N86W 29N86W 27N85W MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 18 KT...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM EAST OF THE LINE.  COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 KT TO 10 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 91W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTS THESE SHOWERS..EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
NEAR THIS REGION CROSSING THE BAHAMAS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N74W 25N76W 22N78W. SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE. MODEL DATA INDICATES DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N44W 30N50W
18N55W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION AS THE CONVECTION
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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