[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED TO ALONG 22W S OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT
BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
SMALL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-8N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 42W/43W S OF 10N. HOWEVER...A
FIVE DAY LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAT WINDS INDICATED THE
WAVE IS ACTUALLY ALONG 36W/37W S OF 11N AND WILL BE ADJUSTED ON
THE 0600 UTC MAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG 52W BETWEEN 7N-10N WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 3N26W 7N48W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N22W ACROSS THE ITCZ
TO 5N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH THE VERTICAL
STACKED LOW NEAR 30N96W WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS.
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 23N-27N W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NW MEXICO. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING ALONG 86W FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE AREAS OF
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 29N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
VENEZUELA ALONG THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 78W-84W. TO THE E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-63W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-25N W OF 76W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N
29N BETWEEN 76W-79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS.
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W TO
31N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 69W-73W
INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N71W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N76W. AN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N47W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N38W ALONG
24N45W TO 17N51W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N42W
EXTENDING FROM 30W-60W AND A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE E ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N23W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WHICH
THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS AND A 1025 MB HIGH W OF THE TROUGH
NEAR 32N51W AND SECOND 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE TROUGH NEAR 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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