[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040002 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 5N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO MOVING WITH THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM. ANY NEAR BY PRECIPITATION
IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 9 KT.
WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR
6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 4N30W 6N40W 8N50W 5N60W. BESIDES
AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED WEAK
TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 11W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST NEAR 30N95W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THESE TWO
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTING A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE GULF...NORTH OF 25N EAST OF
90W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. SHORT RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA. AS FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MODELS INDICATED THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 KT TO 10 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION PRODUCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA...HAS MOVED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...LEAVING THE SOUTHWEST BASIN WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
STABLE AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF DISCUSSION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...RIGHT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND
48W. WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THIS REGION.
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 25N68W 23N72W 20N74W. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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