[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG
17W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W
TO 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS...THIS WAVE IS LOCALIZED WITHIN AN
AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACCORDING TO THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT A RATE
OF 7 TO 10 KT. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOUND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA
NEAR 11N10W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 6N30W 5.5N40W 5.5N50W. BESIDES
AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 57W. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N
TO 10N BETWEEN 17W TO 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N90W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 85 NM OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE
WITH A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT THIS EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PACIFIC...ALONG 84W...IS GENERATING WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
13N WEST OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES EAST OF
81W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 81W...INCLUDING THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN....DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO WEST
AFRICA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES IS KEEPING
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR STATIONARY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N32W 23N43W
18N57W 20N65W 2374W. WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM WEST OF 65W...INCLUDING THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FRONT...A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
31N37W 27N45W 25N53W. NO CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG OR NEAR THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

RAMOS/GARCIA



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