[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 20W HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER E
ALONG 15W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. RELOCATION IS BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA
INDICATING THE WAVE LOCATION NEAR 15W. A RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. HOWEVER...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS TO THE NORTH AND
WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS KEEPING CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED AND CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES W OF A RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 11N67W TO 4N64W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 64W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 82W S OF 10N. WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE
LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS
THE ERN MOST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W.


...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 6N30W 5N40W 5N50W INTO NE
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY THIS MORNING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR
MASS ALOFT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM WRN MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 24N90W IN THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 88W-91W. RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-93W. AS OF
0900 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS
HAS NOW DISSIPATED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EWD. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA HAVE NOW DIMINISHED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
74W-78W...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-74W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES. A WAVE
ALONG 75W/76W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A
WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 82W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N61W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF FLORIDA AFFECTING THE NW
BAHAMAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG 31N42W TO 27N56W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDS N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS 20N60W TO 21N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A COLD
FRONT N OF THE AREA LONG 31N36W TO 24N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS S OF 35N ALONG 56W. FARTHER
E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 45W. ALOFT...A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR
24N27W...AND 11N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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