[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020533 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
18W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. HOWEVER...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
KEEPING CONVECTION SUPPRESSED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 29W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE LIES
EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES W OF A RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 11N65W TO 4N63W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
63W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 11N74W TO 4N73W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 73W-74W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W S OF 10N. WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS
THE ERN MOST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W.


...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N20W 6N30W
6N40W TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N58W. LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
3N-11N BETWEEN 9W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
22W-28W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN
LOUISIANA TO NEAR 22N92W IN THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-93W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PROPAGATES EWD. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN FROM HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF AGATHA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN
ACROSS ERN CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W...AND HISPANIOLA
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
N...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES. A WAVE ALONG 74W IS
ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-76W. A WAVE ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 81W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N77W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N60W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF FLORIDA AFFECTING THE NW
BAHAMAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG 30N45W 27N58W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE TO NEAR 29N65W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG
31N36W 22N49W 20N62W 21N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 63W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN...AND
THE SE BAHAMAS. THESE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS S OF 35N ALONG 58W. FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 40W. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N27W...AND 11N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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