[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020005 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION
FOUND NEARBY THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY FOUND IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN
25W AND 35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

TWO OTHER WEAVES ARE INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...CROSSING VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ANOTHER WAVE IS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA
NEAR 10N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5.5N20W 4.5N30W 4N40W 3N50W. BESIDES
AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM APPEAR TO BE PASSING OVER THE FAR WEST BASIN. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N94W 26N94W
25N94W...PRODUCING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE WITH A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT THIS
EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N84W. THIS LOW IS A REMNANT OF AGATHA THAT MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER A FEW
DAYS AGO. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY INDICATING THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS GENERATING WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES EAST
OF 80W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 80W...INCLUDING THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN....DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N62W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 50W. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE ENTERING THIS REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
CONTINUES TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N34W AND
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N45W 22N55W 20N65W INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TO THE WEST OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N45W 29N52W 29N60W. SCATTERED
WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG
OR NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A 1019 MB NEAR 32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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