[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N20W 12N21W 6N22W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 44W SIX HOURS
AGO WAS MOVED TO 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS MOVED WESTWARD BY 4 TO 5 DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND OTHER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
18N65W JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 14N67W TOWARD THE
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N/11N ALONG 67W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING/WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 16N
BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. ONE NEW AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N64.5W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W/81W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING/WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM PANAMA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N30W TO 9N42W 10N48W
AND 9N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W
AND 39W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 3N TO 4N
BETWEEN 44W AND 46W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA/THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SITUATION IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
CURVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. WARM CLOUD-TOP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N65W TO 22N69W...CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N73W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER NEAR 73W AND 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...JUST BARELY TOUCHING THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF GUATEMALA...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N74W TO THE
NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF 32N AND OUT OF THE AREA FOR THIS WRITTEN BULLETIN.
A RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 1.46 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN BERMUDA
AT 31/0000 UTC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W.
STRONG SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 29N75W.
SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N56W TO 27N57W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 22N59W TO 17N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N36W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 30N39W TO 27N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N30W TO A 17N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 12N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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