[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N21W
TO 8N19W MOVING W NEAR 12KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MOISTURE
SURGE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N32W TO
4N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR A 1010 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 302-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 17N60W
TO 8N65W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE LIES W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
56W-61W...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 62W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
19N80W TO 9N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE CENTRAL/W CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
75W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N30W 12N47W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 36W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS...350 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-49W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN TEXAS TO THE SRN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 23N W OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NW COAST OF
FLORIDA ALONG 31N83W TO 26N84W ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N93W MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SW
SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE NW AREA AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF JAMAICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND SE CARIBBEAN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES PROGRESS WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
35N72W TO 30N79W ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 66W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
TO THE N MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
32N55W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
TO THE E NEAR 24N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS E ALONG
35W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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