[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 18N43W 12N50W 5N57W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 47W-57W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM ERN PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N66W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N29W 11N47W 8N61W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-18W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NW COAST OF
FLORIDA ALONG 30N84W TO 26N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PARALLELS THE SE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG 22N98W TO 17N93W
IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE
ERN GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOW CENTERED OVER NE
NICARAGUA IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA. DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
80W-84W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED OFF THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
73W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S
OF THE SRN COAST OF CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
64W-68W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NRN BORDER ALONG 32N59W 31N68W
32N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 59W-68W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED JUST E OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N80W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N52W TO
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO ITS E ALONG 17N45W TO 5N50W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
CENTRAL/E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N37W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N23W ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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